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Initially, the former US president gave the impression to adopt a resolute stance concerning Ukraine. Following issuing threats of "severe consequences" in August should Putin carried on obstructing peace negotiations, the former president finally enacted substantial sanctions on Russia's two largest petroleum corporations, Lukoil and Rosneft. This move substantially affected Putin's ability to support his military invasion in Ukraine.

However, via his recently unveiled 28-point peace plan for the conflict, that was developed by American and Russian diplomats lacking Ukrainian or EU input, he has seemingly returned to his pro-Putin position.

Favoring Military Action

Trump's plan would effectively favor the Russian leader for invading Ukraine while placing the country's democratic system in peril. Although strong declarations that "The nation's sovereignty will be upheld", significant aspects of the plan actually weaken that same independence. What represents a Kremlin dream would probably be a catastrophe for the nation.

Showing his business background, the former president seems to consider the Ukrainian conflict as a mere land disagreement, like giving Russia a part of Ukrainian soil will satisfy the ruler. But, Russia's military campaign is not simply about controlling a destroyed region of industrial-devastated territory in eastern Ukraine. It is about Ukraine's democracy – and the Russian leader's apparent intention to eliminate it so it ceases to acts as an attractive model for the Russian people of the responsible leadership that Putin's deepening autocracy withholds them.

Territorial Giveaways

While freezing in place the already separated regions of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, Trump's initiative would require the nation to abandon all of this eastern territory. Beyond rewarding Russia with area that its forces have been failed to occupy in more than a ten years of fighting, this surrender would leave Ukrainian defensive positions dangerously weakened.

This region is the place of the nation's highly-touted "stronghold system", the entrenched military defenses that constitute a critical barrier to Russian advances. Trump would have the Ukrainian military abandon these fortifications, leaving Putin a clear path to the capital in case he subsequently decide to resume the hostilities.

Armed Forces Restrictions

Furthermore, in a move that would enable renewed hostilities simpler for the Russian military, Trump would force Ukraine to reduce the scale of its troops from their present approximately 800,000 soldiers to a maximum of 600,000. Significantly, the plan imposes no similar constraints on Russian forces.

Apparently as a concession to Russia's campaign to depict the nation's democratically elected leadership as Nazis, the plan states: "Any Nazi doctrine and practices must be condemned and banned." Apparently to highlight this aspect, it demands that "The nation will hold elections in three months" of a truce. At the same time, the proposal places no condition that the Russian leader jeopardize his authoritarian rule by conducting votes in his own country.

Protection Guarantees

To be sure, the plan has the Russian Federation pledge not to "attack other states" and to "enshrine in law its position of non-aggression towards Europe and Ukraine". However taking into account that Putin has breached equivalent accords in the history – such as the Budapest accord, in which the Russian government committed to respect the nation's borders in exchange for relinquishing its former Soviet nuclear arsenal, and the previous peace deals, in which Moscow promised to a truce and a return of seized territory in the region to the government – how should we trust Russia on this occasion?

For this reason the Ukrainian government has been so adamant on western protection assurances. While the proposal threatens a "strong unified military response" should Russia restart its military campaign, and includes that "Ukraine will receive strong defense commitments", the details range from vague to troubling. The plan would not just deny Ukraine accession to NATO but also preclude member states from stationing forces on Ukraine's soil, effectively precluding the peacekeeping contingent, presumptively led by Britain and France, on which Ukraine had been counting to stop Putin from replenishing his reduced troops, restocking, and reinvading.

International Response

A separate side agreement according to sources would grant the nation with a similar to NATO protection assurance, in which any subsequent "serious, deliberate, and continuous armed attack" by the Russian Federation on the country "shall be regarded as an attack endangering the stability and safety of the transatlantic community." That suggests a military response. However in contrast to a strong national defense – Ukraine's primary protection against renewed hostilities – the credibility of the parallel accord would hinge on the dedication of alliance members, like the US administration, to act with force to Russia's aggression, something they have {not