Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. They authors two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has possesses something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
